Signs Do Vote!

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By Laurie Swanson, Chair, Mid-Keys Democrats
[email protected]

This gentleman voted for Biden and 10 Democrats on Friday because we had a sign rally on Thursday. While my fellow Marathon Democrats were basking in the honks, toots and beeps of the energized traffic on Overseas Highway, I was helping him find his license. He had stopped to ask if he could vote with a voter’s registration and license that said he lived in Naples, Florida. I told him that I thought we could make it happen, and we did.

Now I am no stranger to accents, having lived in the Middle East for nearly 30 years, but his Haitian Creole almost outdid my comprehension. This morning we met at the DMV (which has moved) to pursue changes to his address on his driver’s license. About three hours later, after many trips to his aged beige Toyota Camry where he carries his whole life in little pieces of paper stuffed into every nook and cranny, we emerged with a new, updated, and renewed license in hand.

Off to 100th Street and the Supervisor of Elections Office (SOE) to finish off the voter registration. Although the DMV offered to register him to vote, I thought it wiser to go directly to the SOE office next to the Early Vote location to complete our mission. Kathy worked her magic on the computer and in no time at all my new friend was making his way into the poll room to vote.

While he was voting, I straightened our Democrat signs and retrieved a Biden Harris that had rudely been removed to make way for multiple Trump signs. I re-rooted Biden directly in front of a Trump sign.

I then planted myself on the steps and waited for my friend to emerge from voting. He came down the stairs smiling under his mask and told me that he voted for 10 Democrats and Biden. We got the Deputy to snap our picture. I wished him luck. We both drove in our separate directions knowing that our lives will probably never intersect again.

The Florida Keys Democrats offer many kinds of assistance to anyone wanting to vote. Please click here for more information.

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What we know, and what we don’t know

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by Robert Gold, Technology Director, Florida Keys Democrats
[email protected]

The volunteers of the Monroe County Democratic Executive Committee (Keys Democrats) have been working tirelessly all year in support of the best possible outcome on November 3rd. Our leaders are recruiting and managing volunteers, raising money, assisting candidates, and firing up our voters on a daily basis. My job is about information.

In one of my many jobs as Technology Director, I receive and evaluate masses of new data each day that enable us to make strategic decisions on the basis of facts instead of speculation. From the data we receive (which we’re entitled to by law), we know how many votes have been cast, and by whom. And since we know the party of registration (or no party, as the case may be) for each voter, we consider those data on the basis of the premise that the registered Democrats who have voted have voted for Biden, and that the registered Republicans who have voted have voted for Trump. But of course, that premise is false.

What is true is that not all Democrats who have voted did so for Biden, and not all Republicans who have voted did so for Trump. Another false premise is that those registered with no party affiliation (NPAs) are undecided or unsure. Almost all NPAs who vote will vote for either Biden or Trump. But we have scant basis for predicting the rate of party defections or NPA support for either candidate. 

Democrats are at a disadvantage in Monroe because there are over 4,600 more registered Republicans than Democrats. Mitigating that (for now) is the fact that turnout among registered Democrats stands today (as of October 23rd) at 55%, compared with 43% for Republicans, and only 31% for among the NPA+ segment. That turnout edge will diminish as we approach Election Day, and may even be entirely erased.

Florida is among the closest tipping point states, and if Trump loses Florida, he has almost no chance to retain the White House. Although it would be satisfying and dramatic for Joe Biden to win an outright majority in Monroe County, the outcome in Monroe is mostly symbolic. What really matters for us is our effect on the state-wide tally. And while we’re a small county in a big state, the painful memory of Bush v. Gore in 2000 reminds us that every single Florida vote matters, a lot. Especially yours.   

In 2008, Obama garnered 51.65% of Monroe votes cast, compared with 46.79% for McCain. In 2012, Obama got 49.54% of votes in Monroe, compared with 49.13% for Romney (only a 158 vote difference, a statistical tie). And in 2016, Trump got 50.97% vs. 44.14% for Clinton. The only thing really certain about Monroe outcomes is that the past is not useful in predicting the present. 

High turnout this year is being driven in both directions by Trump. Passionate support and passionate contempt for the President is bringing folks out to vote at a prospectively record-setting rate. The surge that we’re seeing in Monroe early voting by Republicans is unsurprising, considering voting patterns in the August primary. Our edge in vote by mail (VBM) ballot returns and the offsetting Republican edge in early voting are timing issues only; votes count exactly the same regardless of whether cast by mail, early, or on election day.

The final tallies in Monroe will boil down to three unpredictable factors: The rate at which registered Republicans who vote aren’t voting for Trump, the rates at which NPAs turn out to vote and favor Biden, and the rates at which Biden and Trump voters turn out on election day. 

We’ve already surpassed 70% of Democratic VBM ballots returned. We’ve made tens of thousands of carefully targeted phone calls to encourage voting by mail, returning vote by mail ballots, increased turnout among NPAs, and even to promote GOP defections. We’ve mailed over ten thousand hand-addressed postcards and letters. We’re following up with voters whose VBM ballots were delayed, unsigned, or undelivered, we’re helping voters deliver their VBM ballots, and we’re driving voters to early and Election Day voting. We’ve sent tens of thousands of texts, garnered tens of thousands of clicks on our paid advertising in social media and on high-traffic web sites, maintained our robust and content-rich Facebook page and web site, and raised the large sums of money needed to pay for all these efforts. We have the largest force of volunteers in Monroe since 2008, and by far, the best organized volunteer force here ever.

While we don’t know with certainty what Monroe’s outcomes will be on November 3rd, we are certain of this: we are doing the very best we can. And for that we are both proud and grateful. 

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GOP Payroll Tax Cut Will Deplete Social Security Funding by 2023

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by Phil Dodderidge, Vice-Chair Florida Keys Democrats

 The chief actuary of the Social Security Administration released an analysis of Republican’s planned cuts to Social Security funding. Under their plan, Social Security would become permanently depleted by the middle of calendar year 2023. Don’t let that happen. Democrats will protect your Social Security.

The Facts

  • The president signed an executive order that suspends the payment of payroll taxes which fund Social Security until the end of the year.

The executive order  halts collection of the 6.2 percent payroll tax imposed on wages for Social Security, starting Sept. 1. After signing the executive order, Trump said several times that he wanted to permanently end payroll taxes.

Aug. 8: “If I’m victorious on November 3rd, I plan to…make permanent cuts to the payroll tax. So, I’m going to make them all permanent.”

Aug. 11: “Payroll tax holiday, that’s a big, and what we’re doing is sometime after the election, if we win, we’re going to make that permanent, the payroll tax holiday. The payroll tax will be rescinded.”

Aug. 12: “On the payroll tax, we’ll be terminating the payroll tax. After I hopefully get elected, we’ll be terminating the payroll tax.”

  • On Aug. 19, four senators wrote to the chief actuary of the Social Security Administration, Stephen Goss, asking for “your analysis of hypothetical legislation” that would mandate “zero percent” payroll taxes.  Specifically, they wanted to know how soon the Social Security Trust Funds would be depleted if they suddenly stopped receiving any money.
  • On Aug. 24, the Social Security Chief Actuary letter to Senators Van Hollen, Sanders, Wyden, and Schumer concludes:

“We estimate that OASI (Social Security’s Old Age and Survivors Insurance) Trust Fund reserves would become permanently depleted by the middle of calendar year 2023, with no ability to pay OASI benefits thereafter.”

Discussion

The GOP plan to eliminate payroll taxes that fund Social Security to put more money into the pockets of working Americans may sound like a good idea, in theory. However, in reality, it is a horrible proposal for seniors because these taxes, split between employers and employees, fund Social Security and Medicare.

Employers withhold 6.2 percent of earnings of American workers and contribute another 6.2 percent of an employee’s wages to fund Social Security. “Trump’s payroll tax cut plan not only fails to help Americans struggling to get by right now, it would also completely decimate Social Security for the millions of Americans who rely on it,” said Sen. Chris Van Hollen, a Democrat from Maryland and one of the senators who sent the questions to Goss.

The August 2020 GOP and Trump plan to defund Social Security provides proof that Republicans have lied (again) to the American people in their promise(s) to protect Social Security and Medicare.

  • Despite Trump’s State of the Union pledge—“We will always protect your Medi and Medicare/Medicaid, and we will always protect your Social Security. Always.”—it was less than a week before he unveiled a budget proposal that included cuts to Medicare. The previous year’s budget plan, included cuts to both Medicare, Social Security and other programs seniors rely on. When it comes to supporting seniors, Trump and the GOP have a long history of saying one thing and doing the opposite.
  • Trump, who in 2016 vowed he would never cut entitlements, and supported by the GOP, is arguing in the Supreme Court to eliminate the Affordable Care Act and the protections for people with pre-existing conditions that come with it. It should be noted that should this happen, 8,300,000 Americans who contracted COVID19 would suddenly have a pre-existing condition and be ineligible for health insurance.

Republicans have a long history of proposing reforms to reduce benefit increases for future retirees. Here, however, Trump and the GOP are threatening to pull the plug on current retirees, with no alternative funding mechanism (sort of like his effort to destroy Obamacare with no substitute).  Trump and his GOP enablers are proving, once again, they are not our seniors’ friends.

Conclusion

If the Democrats win the Presidency, Senate, and continue their majority in the House, such a proposal has ZERO chance of making it through Congress.  The safety of Medicare, Social Security, and our seniors is at stake in this election.

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Thoughts for Undecided Voters

by John Howe

[LETTER TO THE EDITORS OF THE KEY WEST CITIZEN AND THE FREE PRESS – OCTOBER 1, 2020]

A friend in Key West recently told me that she still can’t decide who to vote for in the upcoming presidential election. I suggested that she vote for whoever she thought would do the best job getting COVID-19 under control and the economy back on its feet. I then sent her what I think are the main qualifications for the job:

Respect for scientists & other experts: He will listen to experts, even those he disagrees with; will put together a national plan to beat back the coronavirus; will act to build back the economy both in the short-term (adequate, broad pandemic relief legislation) and long-term (deal with the national debt and climate change); will fully recognize that a healthy environment and widespread public health are the foundation for a healthy economy.

Moral character: He will be able to express genuine respect and empathy for others–unite us, not divide us; and will respect and empower America’s racial, ethnic and religious diversity.

Effective leader: He will recognize that in times of crisis a leader must deliver clear, consistent, honest messages; will keep the best interests of all Americans in mind; value international cooperation and alliances (think: COVID-19 vaccine development and distribution); will have the leadership skills, experience and personal discipline to lead and coordinate massively complex projects.

Trustworthy: He will firmly believe in the fundamental importance of telling the truth; won’t give false hope or make unrealistic promises he can’t keep; will have no personal history of corruption or fraud while working a business or government job; will fully disclose his personal and business finances to avoid conflicts of interest that threaten national security; and he will abide by his oath to honor the U.S. Constitution and the rule of law.

In short, I recommend that you vote for the candidate who will help you feel safer, healthier and more financially secure.

So far I haven’t heard back from my friend in Key West, but I’m pretty sure she’ll make the right choice.

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An Action Plan

by Roger C. Kostmayer

Under Senator Mitch McConnell’s leadership, Senate Republicans used and abused Senate rules and procedures (like the filibuster) to obstruct the Obama administration’s efforts to fulfill the mandate the People gave them.  Republicans deliberately filled the courts with right-wing radical judges, often with lifetime appointments.  Republican presidential candidates lost the popular vote by millions, yet won the presidency. They have shamelessly grabbed unearned political power and escalated partisan abuses which culminated in their stealing two Supreme Court seats.  The threat to democracy, law, precedent, checks and balances could not be more real.  The majority of Americans do not want to lose their affordable health care, women’s rights, legal abortions, LBGT equal rights to marry, gun regulations that protect their children, the war on climate change, and the separation of church and state—all of which is imminent unless we take action.

The first and most important action by the majority must be focusing on an overwhelming victory November 3—a victory that puts the Democrats comfortably in charge of the White House, the Senate, the House, and grass roots offices.

Secondly, specific Executive Orders and legislation designed to erase Trump corruption, incompetence, distaste for government and rule of law could begin on day one of the new administration, and that second wave of action would start in January by eliminating the filibuster.

The third wave of actions include statehood for deserving territories such as the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands; elimination of the undemocratic and anachronistic Electoral College so that the presidential candidate who gets a majority of the votes wins; and improving the number and diversity of justices on the Supreme Court.

These essential democratic reforms would be important steps toward righting our constitutional democracy and returning our nation to a more unified and level political field.

 

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Florida Amendments 2020

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by Phil Dodderidge, Vice-Chair Florida Keys Democrats

Six statewide ballot measures were certified for the ballot in Florida in 2020.

HIGHLIGHTS

 Four citizen initiatives are on the ballot. Amendment 1 would state that only citizens can vote in Florida; Amendment 2 would raise the minimum wage to $15 by 2026; Amendment 3 would establish top-two open primaries; and Amendment 4 would require constitutional amendments to be passed twice.

 The Florida Legislature referred two constitutional amendments concerning property taxes to the ballot.

Amendments 1,5, and 6 are non-controversial. Amendment 2 gradually raises the minimum wage to $15.00 per hour by September 2026 with increases tied to the CPI thereafter.  This amendment is supported by the Florida Democratic Party and other pro-worker organizations. It is opposed by business organizations like the Florida Chamber of Commerce.

Amendment 3 establishes a “Jungle Primary” system for Florida State elections. It is opposed by both parties, the FL Chamber of Commerce, and black legislators of both parties: Senate Democratic Leader Audrey Gibson. “If you’re for Amendment 3, you’re not for the minority community. Period.”

Amendment 4 changes the process to get constitutional amendments passed from a single ballot initiative to 2 sequential ones. It is opposed by every Democratic Leaning organization in the state and supported by shadow GOP organizations.

Florida 2020 Amendments Summary Table
Monroe DEC Position Title Subject Description
NO

 

 Amendment 1 Suffrage Amends the state Constitution to state that only U.S. citizens who are 18 years old or older can vote in federal, state, local, or school elections (already the law)
YES Amendment 2 Minimum wage Increases the state minimum wage to $15 by 2026
NO Amendment 3 Elections Establishes a top-two open primary system (i.e., jungle primary) for state office primary elections
NO Amendment 4 Direct democracy Requires voter-approved constitutional amendments to be approved by voters at a second general election
NO Amendment 5 Taxes Increases the period during which a person may transfer “Save Our Homes” benefits to a new homestead property from two years to three years
NO Amendment 6 Taxes Allows a homestead property tax discount to be transferred to the surviving spouse of a deceased veteran

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Florida Amendment 1, the Citizen Requirement for Voting Initiative, is on the ballot in Florida as an initiated constitutional amendment on November 3, 2020.

A “yes” vote supports amending the Florida Constitution to state that “only a citizen” of the U.S. who is 18 years old or older can vote in Florida.

 

A “no” vote opposes amending the Florida Constitution, thus keeping the existing language that says “every citizen” of the U.S. who is 18 years old or older can vote in Florid

Amendment 1 would amend Section 2 of Article VI of the Florida Constitution to state that only citizens of the United States who are 18 years old or older are qualified electors in Florida.[1]

  • The Florida Constitution currently says, “Every citizenof the United States who is at least eighteen years of age and who is a permanent resident of the state, if registered as provided by law, shall be an elector of the county where registered.”
  • Under the ballot measure, the Florida Constitution would say, “Only a citizenof the United States who is at least eighteen years of age and who is a permanent resident of the state, if registered as provided by law, shall be an elector of the county where registered.”

Polling Support 80%

Monroe DEC position – Vote NO

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Florida Amendment 2, the $15 Minimum Wage Initiative, is on the ballot in Florida as an initiated constitutional amendment on November 3, 2020.

A “yes” vote supports the initiative to increase the state’s minimum wage incrementally until reaching $15 per hour in September 2026.

 

A “no” vote opposes the initiative to increase the state’s minimum wage incrementally until reaching $15 in September 2026, thereby keeping the current minimum wage of $8.46 per hour.

Amendment 2 would increase the state minimum wage from $8.56 in 2020 to $15.00 in 2026. Under Amendment 2, the state minimum wage would increase each year as follows:[1]

  • $10.00 on September 30, 2021; $11.00 on September 30, 2022; $12.00 on September 30, 2023; $13.00 on September 30, 2024; $14.00 on September 30, 2025; and $15.00 on September 30, 2026. Beginning on September 30, 2027, there would be an annual adjustment to the state minimum wage based on increases to the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W).

Argument For

Florida For a Fair Wage: “Florida needs to pass the Fair Wage Amendment to ensure that all hard-working Floridians can receive a living wage. The ‘living wage’ is the minimum cost that covers the basic needs of an individual and the needs of their family without government assistance. Florida’s minimum wage of $8.46 – or $17,600 per year – for a full-time employee is not a livable wage for many of the 200,000 hard-working Floridians that earn it, especially those working to support a family.”

Argument Against

 Florida Restaurant and Lodging Association: “The proposed ballot initiative to raise Florida’s minimum wage to $15 an hour has a lot of feel-good appeal, but behind all the warm and fuzzies lie a plethora of unintended consequences. An increase like this would have disastrous impacts on businesses and individuals alike. Business owners will be forced to find solutions to control costs, and these solutions will have a direct impact on our state’s 1.4 million hospitality workers. The most obvious solutions include reducing the number of employees, reducing the number of hours remaining employees work and seeking labor alternatives like automation.”

Monroe DEC position – Vote Yes

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Florida Amendment 3, the Top-Two Open Primaries for State Offices Initiative is on the ballot in Florida as an initiated constitutional amendment on November 3, 2020.

A “yes” vote supports establishing a top-two open primary system for primary elections for state legislators, the governor, and cabinet (attorney general, chief financial officer, and commissioner of agriculture) in Florida.

 

A “no” vote opposes establishing a top-two open primary system for primary elections, thereby leaving in place Florida’s current system where closed primaries are held by each party.

Amendment 3 would change Florida’s primary elections for state legislators, the governor and lieutenant governor, and elected cabinet members (Attorney General, Commissioner of Agriculture and Consumer Services, and Chief Financial Officer) from a closed election to a top-two open primary.[2]

Currently, in Florida, primaries are closed, meaning a voter must be registered with a political party in order to participate in that party’s primary election. Winners of a partisan primary election advance to the general election.

Amendment 3 would replace closed primaries with top-two primaries in which all candidates would be placed on one ballot regardless of political affiliation and the top two candidates with the most votes would advance to the general election. A candidate’s party affiliation may appear on the ballot as provided by law. The primaries would also be open, meaning any registered voter, regardless of their political affiliation, could vote in the primary election.

Under Amendment 3, in cases where only two candidates qualify for the primary election, the primary would be canceled, and the election winner would be decided in the general election. If approved by 60% of voters at the 2020 general election, the top-two open primary system would be used beginning in 2024.

Argument For

“For the first time in decades, the voters of Florida will have the chance to decide for themselves whether to let all voters vote. Not surprisingly, the Democrat and Republican Parties don’t want them to have that choice. Leadership of both parties has attacked the campaign and filed court papers to sabotage it, declaring that it ‘confuses voters,’ and ‘takes away voter choice.’ Make no mistake, they are united against letting the voters decide.”

Argument Against

People Over Profits: “An unforeseen outcome of this proposal is the loss of minority representation in both legislative chambers. … Under Amendment 3, both electoral access and representation of people of color would be all but erased. … [t]he inclusion of Republican and independent voters in a Black majority district would allow white Democratic candidates the opportunity to defeat a Black Democrat in the context of a larger general election electorate. … The amendment would all but eliminate third parties from competing in the November general election.”

Monroe DEC position – Vote No

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Florida Amendment 4, the Require Constitutional Amendments to be Passed Twice Initiative, is on the ballot in Florida as an initiated constitutional amendment on November 3, 2020.

A “yes” vote supports requiring voter-approved constitutional amendments to be approved by voters at a second general election to become effective.

 

A “no” vote opposes requiring voter-approved constitutional amendments to be approved by voters at a second general election to become effective.

Amendment 4 would require constitutional amendments to be approved by voters at two successive general elections to become effective. Currently in Florida, if voters approve an amendment at one general election, it becomes part of the constitution.

In Florida, constitutional amendments require a 60% supermajority vote to become effective. This requirement was added to the constitution in 2006. Under Amendment 4, the supermajority requirement would apply to both elections.

Argument For

Keep Our Constitution Clean PC: “By doing pass-it-twice, we think we can reduce the amount of … whimsical constitutional amendments. [In Florida], there have been more than 140 constitutional amendments [since the 1960s]. The United States Constitution, which has been around since the 1700s, has been amended 27 times.

Argument Against

The Florida Democratic Party urges the voters of Florida to protect the power they have to overrule career politicians and big-money special interests and to VOTE AGAINST AMENDMENT 4 (Voter Approval of Constitutional Amendments).

Monroe DEC position – Vote No

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Florida Amendment 5, the Florida Extend “Save Our Homes” Portability Period Amendment, is on the ballot in Florida as a legislatively referred constitutional amendment on November 3, 2020.

A “yes” vote supports extending the period during which a person may transfer Save Our Homes benefits to a new homestead property from two years to three years.

 

A “no” vote opposes extending the period during which a person may transfer Save Our Homes benefits to a new homestead property from two years to three years.

Homesteads, or primary residences, are subject to property taxes in Florida, which must be assessed at just value, except that every primary residence is eligible for a $25,000 homestead exemption. Another $25,000 homestead exemption is applied to homesteads that have an assessed value of more than $50,000 up to $75,000. The homestead exemption reduces the taxable value of a property.

Amendment 10 of 1992, a citizen initiative known as the “Save Our Homes Amendment”, limited homestead property valuation increases for homes receiving a homestead exemption to a maximum of 3% annually. Voters approved the measure in a vote of 54% to 46%. The difference between the just value and the assessed value is referred to as the Save Our Homes (SOH) benefit.

Argument For

Tampa Bay Times Editorial Board: “People who sell their houses covered by a homestead exemption have two years to move into a new house and carry that tax break along with them. Except they really don’t. … To transfer the Save Our Homes exemption, Florida law says a homeowner must have “received a homestead exemption as of Jan. 1 of either of the two immediately preceding years.” So someone could easily miss out by selling a home late in the year and then building a new home that isn’t finished by New Year’s of the year after next — in other words, after only a year and a few days had passed. … This simple change means that the Constitution would reflect what voters intended, that homeowners could take their exemption with them for two full years or more — and not lose it in the space of a year and a few days. Lawmakers should put this sensible change on the ballot, and voters should approve the amendment in November.”

This amendment was passed unanimously in the Fl House and Senate to be put on the ballot, March 2020

Argument Against

Monroe DEC position – Vote no.  Specific taxes have no place in the State Constitution. The appropriate place for this to happen is laws passed by legislation.

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Florida Amendment 6, the Homestead Property Tax Discount for Spouses of Deceased Veterans Amendment, is on the ballot in Florida as a legislatively referred constitutional amendment on November 3, 2020.

A “yes” vote supports allowing a homestead property tax discount to be transferred to the surviving spouse of a deceased veteran.

 

A “no” vote opposes allowing a homestead property tax discount to be transferred to the surviving spouse of a deceased veteran.

This amendment would allow a homestead property tax discount to be transferred to the surviving spouse of a deceased veteran. The discount would be in effect until the spouse remarries, sells, or otherwise disposes of the property. If the spouse sells the property and does not remarry, the spouse’s new primary residence may receive a homestead tax discount not exceeding the dollar amount from the most recent ad valorem tax roll. The amendment would take effect January 1, 2021.[1]

Currently, the homestead property tax discount for veterans expires upon their death and is not extended to their spouses.

Argument For

The measure was passed unanimously in both chambers of the Florida State Legislature, March 2020.

Argument Against

Monroe DEC position – Vote no.  Specific taxes have no place in the State Constitution. The appropriate place for this to happen is laws passed by legislation.

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